Organise to Fight For A Government of Workers' And Toilers'!
-Ashish Devrari & Sourav Bhattacharya/ 15.12.2018
BJP has lost in the five states that had gone to polls recently. The Assembly polls in these states are no doubt an indicator to the upcoming general elections for Lok Sabha, in 2019. The upswing in favour of the far right BJP has halted sometime back and a further receding wave was spectacularly clear in the present polls.
Despite the fact that victory margins in poll percentage were not so big and the shift in the mood of the masses was not so sharp, ruling BJP had to lose all the five states because of electoral algebra.
Following figures demonstrate the poll results briefly:
Madhya Pradesh: INC 114, BJP 109, BSP 2, Others 0
Chhattisgarh: INC 68, BJP 15, JCC(J) 5, BSP 2, CPI 0
Rajasthan: INC 99, BJP 73, BSP 6, Others 21
Telangana: TRS 88, INC 19, TDP 2, BJP 1, CPI 0
Mizoram: MNF 26, INC 5, BJP 1, Others 8
As compared to the last elections, the shift in the vote percentage in all states was not big. In Madhya Pradesh, where BJP lost with a thin seat margin, it secured more votes than the winner Congress, but failed to cash it in seats.
A very thin shift in the poll percentage, has made big shift in the number of seats. Moreover, the complex distribution of votes over the seats and among the parties, makes it impossible to calculate or predict in advance. The scenario is further complicated by the presence of large number of local and regional parties that often affect the vote percentage to great extent.
The small, vacillating mass, finally holds the reigns and decides the fate of the power, a fact that makes the bourgeois democracy a mockery.
In 230 seat MP Assembly, Congress had secured 36.38% votes in 2013 elections while BJP had polled 44.88%. In 2018, Congress has secured 40.9.% vote share with 1,55,95,153 votes and 114 seats, while BJP with 41% vote share and 1,56,42,980 votes, could secure only 109 seats. Not only the difference in polled votes was nominal at 0.1% (47,817 votes) between the two parties but the BJP that secured marginally more than Congress, lagged behind the Congress by five seats. Fate of 17 seats was decided by a margin of less than one percent of votes and another 13 by more than one but less than two percent. BJP got less than 20% vote in two seats, while Congress got less than 20% in 11 seats.
Similarly in Rajasthan, the difference in vote percentage between the votes polled by two major parties, Congress and BJP, was around 2 lac (0.5% votes) with Congress securing 39.3% with 1,39,17,929 votes and BJP 38.8% with 1,37,43,459 votes but the difference in seats was huge with Congress getting 99 and BJP 73 i.e. a huge margin of 26 seats. A whopping 27 seats have gone to regional parties and independents.
Only in Chhattisgarh, the difference in polled votes of the two parties was high at around 10.4%. While Congress secured 43.2% votes, BJP secured 32.8% votes. Congress polled around 13 lacs more votes than BJP. Out of the 90 seats in Assembly, Congress claimed 65 and BJP 17, leaving 8 for independents.
Votes polled in NOTA were maximum in this election. In Rajasthan 4,66,937, in Madhya Pradesh 5,22,414, in Chhattisgarh 2,61,269, In Telangana 2,21,842 and in Mizoram 2917 votes were polled for NOTA. This shows a rising disenchantment of people and their rejection of bourgeois democracy.
Though Congress has won in the three large states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, out of five states, while BJP lost in all, no credit for the victory can be legitimately claimed by the Congress. The electoral victory has come by default. The defeat of BJP, is no result of any strategy or actions of Congress but the direct result of the corrupt and pro-big business regime under Modi. The policies of Modi government, that include above all- demonetization, debt crisis in rural areas, rising oil prices, corruption and so on and so forth, have brought down the BJP governments in the three states and further marginalized it in the other two. Congress can only claim the benefit of the absence of an anti-incumbency against it as it neither was ruling in centre nor in any of the states that have gone to polls.
Kamalnath, one of the kingpins in 1984 anti-Sikh communal carnage, and stated to have mobilized the corporate funding of more than 500 crores for Congress campaign in the Madhya Pradesh, has been nominated to be the Chief Minister in the state. Similarly Ashok Gehlot is handed over the reigns in Rajasthan. Both Madhav Rao Scindia and Sachin Pilot, whom Congress President Rahul Gandhi looks upon as his political rivals inside the party have been cleverly sidelined. Before the dust could be settled, however, there were rowdy scenes of infight among the rival factions of Congress Party, for power.
The electoral victories by such thin, vacillating margins and the strong emergence of regional parties in different states, i.e. return of TRS in Telangana and victory of MNF in Mizoram, are the factors that are creating serious concern in the power corridors. They are clear signs of a brewing political crisis as no single countrywide party of ruling bourgeoisie is left capable to hold the reigns of the power in its hands. The equilibrium that was achieved in 2014 after decades, with rise of Modi to power, is lost again. The fragmentation leads to instability of the bourgeois regime and presents a danger of further radicalization of the masses amidst political chaos. Needless to say that the Hindu-supremacist government of BJP, has utterly failed in its mission to keep the country united to ensure the security and continuity for the bourgeois regime.
However, Modi Government has done considerable heavy weightlifting during this period. Toughest, anti-popular decisions like demonetization, price-hike, changes in labour laws etc have been undertaken and imposed by Modi government during its tenure.
Stalinist left has once again failed to secure any advances in the elections except at two fringe seats in Rajasthan. All major parties of Stalinists, that include CPI, CPM and CPI ML Liberation, have joined the bandwagon of bourgeois rightwing opposition led by Congress. The task they have set before themselves is to subordinate their followers among the workers and the youth to the rightwing bourgeois opposition.
These centrist parties, have criminally ignored the appeals of WSP to forge an independent left bloc of workers and toilers against capitalism and fascism. Instead, on the pretext of opposing fascism, they have turned themselves into blind levers to catapult the rightwing opposition under Congress to power. They are assisting bourgeois opposition to prevent the working class from presenting its own answer to the crisis of bourgeois regime. They are hostile to all independent mobilization and assertion of the working class and are interested in serving and defending the establishment of the bourgeoisie- the bourgeois democracy, at all costs.
Psuedo-lefts are rejoicing in the electoral win of Congress and bartering it as defeat of fascism. Return of Congress to power in place of BJP has no real meaning for the working class. It is the decades old corrupt misrule of Congress that has paved the way to fascism. It will do the same now. It was Congress that had introduced the pro-big business neo liberal regime and has implemented the most anti-poor policies that included the para military operations against the poor like Greenhunt. It was during the regime of Congress that India was tagged to imperialist military bloc under US and NATO. Its leadership is home to the criminals of communal carnage and the medieval lords like Scindias.
The victory of Congress is again the victory of bourgeois rightwing forces and consequent decimation of the working class in which pseudo-left is active contributor. The state under Congress would not suppress fascism but would keep it alive, nurture it and use it as its iron arm to fight and block any resurgence of the genuine left.
Congress and BJP are the two sides of the same coin as both work in tandem to keep the political regime of capitalism, intact. They are two wings of capitalism that balance and guard it on both flanks.
After coming to power, the fascist BJP has resolved no contradiction, rather has flared them up paving way for further radicalization of the working people and toiling masses. More class conscious sections of Indian bourgeoisie, organized in the ranks of opposition led by Congress, have thus been interested in getting rid of proxy rule of the RSS, as soon as possible. Since coming to power in 2014, out of the 24 allies now only 11 remain in the NDA led by BJP. Phony euphoria created by corporate media in support of Narendra Modi has fast receded in the last few months. His lieutenant Amit Shah, propagated by the rightwing media as the great poll strategist, has fallen flat in the recent polls.
The changing political scene amidst embitterment of the masses places the revolutionary intervention of the working class on the immediate agenda of the day.
Fascism, is nothing but political expression of capitalism in crisis. Bourgeois democracy is not an answer to fascism, but in fact a stepping stone for it. No fight against fascism thus can be launched on the basis of defence of bourgeois democracy or in alliance with the bourgeois rightwing parties and leaders. Struggle against fascism is part of the overall fight against capitalism and thus it can only be realised through a struggle for revolution on the basis of a socialist program.
Working class and the youth must not join the bandwagon of bourgeois opposition and let the immense political possibility slip out of the hands. Instead they must exploit the present political crisis, the tug-of-war among the sections of the bourgeoisie, to present its own answer to this crisis - the government of workers and toilers- as an alternative to capitalism!
Chhattisgarh: INC 68, BJP 15, JCC(J) 5, BSP 2, CPI 0
Rajasthan: INC 99, BJP 73, BSP 6, Others 21
Telangana: TRS 88, INC 19, TDP 2, BJP 1, CPI 0
Mizoram: MNF 26, INC 5, BJP 1, Others 8
As compared to the last elections, the shift in the vote percentage in all states was not big. In Madhya Pradesh, where BJP lost with a thin seat margin, it secured more votes than the winner Congress, but failed to cash it in seats.
A very thin shift in the poll percentage, has made big shift in the number of seats. Moreover, the complex distribution of votes over the seats and among the parties, makes it impossible to calculate or predict in advance. The scenario is further complicated by the presence of large number of local and regional parties that often affect the vote percentage to great extent.
The small, vacillating mass, finally holds the reigns and decides the fate of the power, a fact that makes the bourgeois democracy a mockery.
In 230 seat MP Assembly, Congress had secured 36.38% votes in 2013 elections while BJP had polled 44.88%. In 2018, Congress has secured 40.9.% vote share with 1,55,95,153 votes and 114 seats, while BJP with 41% vote share and 1,56,42,980 votes, could secure only 109 seats. Not only the difference in polled votes was nominal at 0.1% (47,817 votes) between the two parties but the BJP that secured marginally more than Congress, lagged behind the Congress by five seats. Fate of 17 seats was decided by a margin of less than one percent of votes and another 13 by more than one but less than two percent. BJP got less than 20% vote in two seats, while Congress got less than 20% in 11 seats.
Similarly in Rajasthan, the difference in vote percentage between the votes polled by two major parties, Congress and BJP, was around 2 lac (0.5% votes) with Congress securing 39.3% with 1,39,17,929 votes and BJP 38.8% with 1,37,43,459 votes but the difference in seats was huge with Congress getting 99 and BJP 73 i.e. a huge margin of 26 seats. A whopping 27 seats have gone to regional parties and independents.
Only in Chhattisgarh, the difference in polled votes of the two parties was high at around 10.4%. While Congress secured 43.2% votes, BJP secured 32.8% votes. Congress polled around 13 lacs more votes than BJP. Out of the 90 seats in Assembly, Congress claimed 65 and BJP 17, leaving 8 for independents.
Votes polled in NOTA were maximum in this election. In Rajasthan 4,66,937, in Madhya Pradesh 5,22,414, in Chhattisgarh 2,61,269, In Telangana 2,21,842 and in Mizoram 2917 votes were polled for NOTA. This shows a rising disenchantment of people and their rejection of bourgeois democracy.
Though Congress has won in the three large states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, out of five states, while BJP lost in all, no credit for the victory can be legitimately claimed by the Congress. The electoral victory has come by default. The defeat of BJP, is no result of any strategy or actions of Congress but the direct result of the corrupt and pro-big business regime under Modi. The policies of Modi government, that include above all- demonetization, debt crisis in rural areas, rising oil prices, corruption and so on and so forth, have brought down the BJP governments in the three states and further marginalized it in the other two. Congress can only claim the benefit of the absence of an anti-incumbency against it as it neither was ruling in centre nor in any of the states that have gone to polls.
Kamalnath, one of the kingpins in 1984 anti-Sikh communal carnage, and stated to have mobilized the corporate funding of more than 500 crores for Congress campaign in the Madhya Pradesh, has been nominated to be the Chief Minister in the state. Similarly Ashok Gehlot is handed over the reigns in Rajasthan. Both Madhav Rao Scindia and Sachin Pilot, whom Congress President Rahul Gandhi looks upon as his political rivals inside the party have been cleverly sidelined. Before the dust could be settled, however, there were rowdy scenes of infight among the rival factions of Congress Party, for power.
The electoral victories by such thin, vacillating margins and the strong emergence of regional parties in different states, i.e. return of TRS in Telangana and victory of MNF in Mizoram, are the factors that are creating serious concern in the power corridors. They are clear signs of a brewing political crisis as no single countrywide party of ruling bourgeoisie is left capable to hold the reigns of the power in its hands. The equilibrium that was achieved in 2014 after decades, with rise of Modi to power, is lost again. The fragmentation leads to instability of the bourgeois regime and presents a danger of further radicalization of the masses amidst political chaos. Needless to say that the Hindu-supremacist government of BJP, has utterly failed in its mission to keep the country united to ensure the security and continuity for the bourgeois regime.
However, Modi Government has done considerable heavy weightlifting during this period. Toughest, anti-popular decisions like demonetization, price-hike, changes in labour laws etc have been undertaken and imposed by Modi government during its tenure.
Stalinist left has once again failed to secure any advances in the elections except at two fringe seats in Rajasthan. All major parties of Stalinists, that include CPI, CPM and CPI ML Liberation, have joined the bandwagon of bourgeois rightwing opposition led by Congress. The task they have set before themselves is to subordinate their followers among the workers and the youth to the rightwing bourgeois opposition.
These centrist parties, have criminally ignored the appeals of WSP to forge an independent left bloc of workers and toilers against capitalism and fascism. Instead, on the pretext of opposing fascism, they have turned themselves into blind levers to catapult the rightwing opposition under Congress to power. They are assisting bourgeois opposition to prevent the working class from presenting its own answer to the crisis of bourgeois regime. They are hostile to all independent mobilization and assertion of the working class and are interested in serving and defending the establishment of the bourgeoisie- the bourgeois democracy, at all costs.
Psuedo-lefts are rejoicing in the electoral win of Congress and bartering it as defeat of fascism. Return of Congress to power in place of BJP has no real meaning for the working class. It is the decades old corrupt misrule of Congress that has paved the way to fascism. It will do the same now. It was Congress that had introduced the pro-big business neo liberal regime and has implemented the most anti-poor policies that included the para military operations against the poor like Greenhunt. It was during the regime of Congress that India was tagged to imperialist military bloc under US and NATO. Its leadership is home to the criminals of communal carnage and the medieval lords like Scindias.
The victory of Congress is again the victory of bourgeois rightwing forces and consequent decimation of the working class in which pseudo-left is active contributor. The state under Congress would not suppress fascism but would keep it alive, nurture it and use it as its iron arm to fight and block any resurgence of the genuine left.
Congress and BJP are the two sides of the same coin as both work in tandem to keep the political regime of capitalism, intact. They are two wings of capitalism that balance and guard it on both flanks.
After coming to power, the fascist BJP has resolved no contradiction, rather has flared them up paving way for further radicalization of the working people and toiling masses. More class conscious sections of Indian bourgeoisie, organized in the ranks of opposition led by Congress, have thus been interested in getting rid of proxy rule of the RSS, as soon as possible. Since coming to power in 2014, out of the 24 allies now only 11 remain in the NDA led by BJP. Phony euphoria created by corporate media in support of Narendra Modi has fast receded in the last few months. His lieutenant Amit Shah, propagated by the rightwing media as the great poll strategist, has fallen flat in the recent polls.
The changing political scene amidst embitterment of the masses places the revolutionary intervention of the working class on the immediate agenda of the day.
Fascism, is nothing but political expression of capitalism in crisis. Bourgeois democracy is not an answer to fascism, but in fact a stepping stone for it. No fight against fascism thus can be launched on the basis of defence of bourgeois democracy or in alliance with the bourgeois rightwing parties and leaders. Struggle against fascism is part of the overall fight against capitalism and thus it can only be realised through a struggle for revolution on the basis of a socialist program.
Working class and the youth must not join the bandwagon of bourgeois opposition and let the immense political possibility slip out of the hands. Instead they must exploit the present political crisis, the tug-of-war among the sections of the bourgeoisie, to present its own answer to this crisis - the government of workers and toilers- as an alternative to capitalism!
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